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  • Date : 21st December 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st December 2017.




    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Asian stock markets again traded mixed, with the boost from U.S. tax cuts quickly evaporating. Nikkei and ASX declined, Hang Seng and CSI 300 moved higher, as the BoJ left policy unchanged in the final meeting of the year. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are marginally higher as markets start to prepare for the long holiday weekend and the year end comes in sight. A EUR clearly above 1.18 against the dollar is doing little to boost the DAX as ECB asset purchases wind down today only to resume at much lower levels in January. Long yields continued to trade higher in Asia, but European yields managed to close off intraday lows on Wednesday and Treasury yields are down, so some stabilisation in quieter markets. U.K. consumer confidence dipped in December and today’s calendar still has French business confidence, as well as U.K. public finance data. Catalonia’s regional election will provide some interest although first results won’t be out until after the European close.

    German house price inflation: Data shows a slight cooling, with the annual rate in the Europace home price index falling back to 5.9% from 6.2% in the previous month. Prices still rose 0.7% m/m, up from 0.3% m/m in October and the annual index for apartment remained at a very strong 7.8% y/y. The ECB continues to insist that there are no signs of wide spread asset price bubbles, but the German housing markets clearly is showing signs of strain with prices in some areas significantly overvalued. Draghi is relying on national regulators to try and deal with the issue, but in light of the last housing bubbles and crisis there remain concerns whether this will be sufficient if the ECB continues pump cash in an already overheating market.

    U.S. Data Reports: The 5.6% U.S. November existing home sales surge to a cycle-high 5.81 mln pace beat estimates, following rates of 5.50 (was 5.48) mln in October and 5.37 mln in September, as sales climb above the 5.70 mln prior cycle-high rate last March. Sales in the south, which include hurricane sites in both Texas and Florida, soared 8.3% in November after a 1.9% rise in October, but declines of 1.4% (was 1.4%) in September and 5.7% in August. We saw a 0.8% November rise for the median price, but a 7.2% drop for inventories. We expect growth rates for existing home sales of a robust 20% in Q4 and a flat figure in Q1 as we partly give back the Q4 spike, after contraction rates of 12% in Q3 and 4% in Q2. Existing home sales are on track for just a 2% rise in 2017 and an estimated 3% rise in 2018, following gains of 3.9% in 2016 and 6.5% in 2015, but a 2.9% 2014 post “taper-tantrum” drop. We have cyclical increases of 68% for existing home sales and 43% for pending home sales, versus larger cyclical gains of 154% for new home sales, 171% for housing starts, and 153% for permits. The housing sector is well positioned for 2018, though growth in “existers” has been slim.

    Main Macro Events Today

    Final Q3 GDP – Expectations are for Q3 GDP to be confirmed at 3.3% following the impacts of the hurricanes feeding through, however, some estimates have a tick up to 3.4% and revisions for Q2 up to 3.2%. The data (along with Weekly Job Claims and PCE) is released at 13:30 GMT and is likely to have the biggest impact on the USD today.

    Canadian CPI – Expectations are for a rise to 0.2.% in November after the 0.1% gain in October, as higher gasoline prices impact. But the CPI is seen surging to a 2.0% y/y rate in November from 1.4% in October, due to a difficult comparison with a low index level in November of last year (CPI fell 0.4% m/m in November of 2016). Gasoline prices surged in November compared to October, which is expected to drive total month comparable CPI growth. The loonie was weaker in November versus October, which could weigh on prices of imported goods. But gas prices shine the brightest, leaving the risk to the upside. The core measures were mixed in October. The CPI trim was up 1.5% y/y, matching September’s 1.5% gain. The CPI common grew 1.6% y/y versus a 1.5% increase. The CPI median slowed to 1.7% y/y from 1.8%.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Stuart Cowell
    Senior Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    Comment


    • Date : 22nd December 2017.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd December 2017.




      FX News Today

      European Outlook: The global equity rally continued in Asia overnight, after banks and energy companies underpinned gains on Wall Street yesterday. The Nikkei rose 0.16% after the cabinet approval of a budget plan that includes extra stimulus spending. The Hang Seng is up 0.34%, helped by developers. In Europe the FTSE 100 managed record highs yesterday and closed with a gain of more than 1%, but stock futures are suggesting a correction today. In the Eurozone the election victory of Catalonia’s Separatists weighed on the EUR and is likely to hit Spanish markets, after the outperformance of the IBEX yesterday. The ECB halts its bond buying from today for the quiet holiday period and trading is likely to wind down as the year end comes into view. Today the calendar holds French PPI, consumer spending and final Q3 GDP as well as the Swiss KOF leading indicator, Italian sentiment data and the final reading of U.K. Q3 GDP.

      German GfK consumer confidence: Improved to 10.8 in the projected January reading. The breakdown for November, when confidence held steady at 10.7 showed an improvement in business cycle expectations, but more importantly income expectations, but despite this the willingness to buy declined slightly as the willingness to save turned less negative. Still overall a positive number that suggests consumption will continue to underpin overall growth, as the labour market continues to improve and wage growth picks up.

      German import price inflation: Accelerated to 2.7% y/y in November, from 2.6% y/y in the previous month. the data were in line with our forecast, but a tad above Bloomberg consensus, as higher energy price inflation lifted the annual rate. Without oil prices would have risen just 0.2% m/m and 1.2% y/y, so despite the uptick in the headline rate something for Draghi to argue with as underlying inflation remains modest, although in the three months trend rate the reading excluding energy turned positive for the first time since May.

      U.S. Data Reports: U.S. House passed a short-term, stop-gap spending bill by a vote of 231-188. The bill, which still must be approved by the Senate, would avert a government shutdown on Friday, and would fund the government through January 19. This bill would maintain he same spending levels currently mandated. It would also allow for $4.5 bln in emergency funding for missile defense, as well as money for various healthcare programs, including $2.85 bln for CHIP, the Children’s Health Insurance Program. The bill also included a waiver for the automatic spending cuts that would kick in under PAYGO, and that would allow President Trump to sign the tax reform bill just passed. The revised U.S. Q3 GDP data imply a Q3 productivity growth trimming to 2.8% from 3.0%, after a Q2 rate of 1.5%, with output growth of a revised 3.9% (was 4.1%) in Q3 after a 3.9% Q2 pace. We expect Q3 hourly compensation growth of an unrevised 2.7% after a 0.3% rate in Q2. The mix should leave a flat (was -0.2%) Q3 unit labor cost figure after a 1.2% Q2 drop. We expect unrevised hours-worked growth of 1.1% in Q3 after a 2.4% Q2 clip. We expect personal income growth of 4.1% in Q4 as income is pushed into 2018 from 2017 in anticipation of tax cuts, as seen last year, following an unrevised 2.8% rate in Q3. Disposable income should grow at a 4.1% in Q4 after a 2.1% (was 2.0%) rate in Q3. The savings rate should fall to a cycle-low 2.9% in Q4 with a monthly cycle-low that we peg at 2.5% in December as bonuses are delayed to January, from 3.3% in Q3 and 3.7% in Q2, versus a prior cycle-low 3.6% in Q4 of last year. We saw a 3-year high of 6.2% back in Q2 of 2015.

      Main Macro Events Today

      US Durable Goods – Expectations are for a significant increase in the headline figure to 2.0% from a revise -0.8% last time but the key core figure is expected to slip to 0.5% from 0.9% last time. With CAD data also at 13:30 there could be interesting movements on the USDCAD pair again today like we saw yesterday following the US GDP miss and strong Canadian data.

      Canadian GDP – Expectations are for a rise to 0.2% (m/m, sa). Wholesale volumes were also good news for GDP, rebounding 1.2% in October after the 1.0% tumble in September. The growth in retail sales and wholesale shipment is a welcome contrast with the 1.5% plunge in October manufacturing shipment volumes. Housing starts grew 1.9% to a 222.8k unit pace in October from 218.7k in September, suggestive of a positive contribution from construction. The outlook for the mining, oil and gas sector is positive: Energy exports rose 2.7% in October after a 3.6% gain in September and a 1.7% increase in August. The manufacturing report’s measure of petroleum and coal shipments rose 2.2% in October after a 9.7% gain in September. We expect GDP to improve to a 2.6% pace in Q4 (q/q, saar) from 1.7% in Q3, which would be right in line with the BoC’s 2.5% estimate from the October MPR.

      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

      Click HERE to READ more Market news.


      Stuart Cowell
      Senior Market Analyst
      HotForex


      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

      Comment


      • Date : 27nd December 2017.

        MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27nd December 2017.




        FX News Today

        European Fixed Income Outlook: Markets in Europe re-open after the Christmas holiday weekend, but trading will by quiet. Wall Street closed fractionally lower on Tuesday, while long Treasury yields declined. In Europe, peripheral yields are likely to remain volatile as the ECB halted purchases over the holiday period, with thin market conditions apt to amplify movements. The economic calendar is quiet today. Preliminary inflation data for December is due out of both Germany and Spain on Friday, where we expect headline rates falling back again after the spike in November, which was mainly driven by base effects from energy prices. An abatement in inflation would back Draghi’s commitment to ongoing asset purchases, although with the output gap closing faster than anticipated, the ECB’s guidance should gradually change over the coming months, with the focus shifting from net purchases to maintaining the stock of assets, and eventually rates.

        FX Update: The dollar has been trading with a soft tilt, with USDJPY edging out a four-session low at 113.12, EURUSD a four-session high at 1.1884, and USDCAD making three-week low and AUDUSD a two-month high, at 0.7750. This has come despite robust producer sentient data yesterday out of the U.S., along with the expected fiscal stimulus to come after the passing of the U.S. tax overhaul bill last week. London and other key interbank centres reopen today, though staffing levels and client activity will remain very low until next Tuesday. The calendar is very lightly in Europe and North America today, highlighted by UK mortgage data, an Italian bond sale, and U.S. consumer confidence data.

        U.S. Reports: revealed another two robust producer sentiment readings for December that provide a prelude to a renewed sentiment updraft into 2018 with the new tax law, alongside a 0.2% October rise in the S&P Case Shiller home price index that bucked seasonal price restraint to leave a rise in the y/y gain to 6.4% from 6.2%. For the Dallas Fed, we saw a rise to an 11-year high of 29.7, from 19.4 in November and a prior 11-year high of 27.6 in October. For the Richmond Fed, we saw a drop-back to a 20 reading in December that marks the second strongest figure since December of 2010, from an all-time high of 30.0 in November, with an employment index pop to a new cycle-high. Both measures have shown little moderation from the big hurricane rebuilding lift starting in September, and the ISM-adjusted level of all the major sentiment indexes is rising back to 58 from 57 in November.

        Main Macro Events Today

        * Swiss ZEW Survey – Credit Swiss Economic Expectations will be released at 09:00 GMT

        * US Pending Home Sales- The NAR pending home sales index is expected to ease to -0.5% in November from 3.5%.

        * Japanese Retail Trade – November retail sales are seen bouncing to -0.6% from -0.7% for large retailers, and to 1.2% y/y from -0.2% overall.


        Charts of the Day



        Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

        Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

        Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

        Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

        Click HERE to READ more Market news.


        Andria Pichidi
        Market Analyst
        HotForex


        Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

        Comment


        • Click image for larger version

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          GBPUSD today is likely to move in a bullish bias. As a trading strategy based on technical analysis today you can look for buy signals if correction occurs to the reference area that is in the range of 1.34504, with TP at 1.35056. If the correction does not occur, a break above 1.35200 will open further bullish opportunities up to the range 1.35400.

          Comment


          • Date : 8th January 2017.

            MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th January 2017.




            FX News Today

            The start of the year 2018 is off to a bang with the “snow bomb” and freeze on the East Coast of the U.S., along with the start of the MiFID financial regulation in Europe and fresh record highs right out of the gate on equities around the globe. That’s kept yields pressured higher, but continues to do few favors for the dollar, even as gold and Bitcoin rebounded. Headline U.S. nonfarm payrolls disappointed elevated expectations, but the guts of the report remained solid.

            United States: The economic calendar will home in on inflation data and retail sales following the miss on the headline December payrolls print last week. Consumer credit kicks off the week (Monday) with an $18.0 bln increase forecast for November vs $20.5 bln previously. Second tier NFIB small business optimism and JOLTS job openings (Tuesday) are on tap next. MBA mortgage market data (Wednesday) is due, along with import prices seen +0.2% in December and export prices flat. Wholesale sales may increase 0.8% in November, while inventories rise 0.7% (Wednesday), with EIA energy inventory data on deck as well. Headline PPI may dip 0.1% in December vs 0.4% (Thursday), while core is expected at 0.2% vs 0.1%. Initial jobless claims are projected (Thursday) to drop 15k to 235k for the January 6 week and the Treasury budget gap is set to widen to -$52.0 bln in December vs -$28 bln a year-ago. Headline CPI is forecast to increase 0.2% in December vs 0.4% (Friday), while core is set to rise 0.2% vs 0.1% — leaving core y/y at 1.7%. Also on tap are December retail sales, which is forecast to rise 0.3% vs 0.8%, while increasing 0.4% ex-auto. Lastly is business inventories that should rise 0.3% in November vs -0.1%.

            Fedspeak resumes in full force with a trio of Atlanta’s Bostic, SF’s Williams and Boston’s Rosengren (Monday). Bostic will be speaking on the economy and policy, while the other two will be taking part in a Brookings event on the 2% inflation target. Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari will participate in a Q&A session (Tuesday), followed by Chicago’s Evans. St. Louis’s Bullard and Dallas’s Kaplan appear (Wednesday), who will be speaking on the economy and policy. NY Fed’s Dudley will deliver a keynote address on the 2018 economic outlook (Thursday) and Rosengren will return (Friday) to discuss the outlook as well.

            Canada: The final bit of economic data are due this week before the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) January 17 announcement and Monetary Policy Report next week. The calendar is front-loaded, with the BoC’s business outlook survey for Q4 due Monday and December housing starts due Tuesday. Building permits are out Wednesday. The decidedly second tier November new home price index and December Teranet National HPI are scheduled for Thursday and Friday, respectively. The BoC’s business outlook survey will finalize expectations for the BoC next week.

            Europe: Strong growth and still low inflation remain the main features of the Eurozone economy, and with the ECB still glossing over the cracks of the Eurozone system long yields remain low also in peripheral countries. Political risks will continue to dominate over the next couple of months as the Italian general election on March 4 comes into view, Germany’s struggle to find a stable government continues and Brexit talks go into the second round. German Nov manufacturing orders (Monday) are seen down -0.3% m/m , but after a rise of 0.5% m/m in the previous month. and with a still strong trend suggesting ongoing robust demand in the manufacturing sector. Eurozone ESI Economic Confidence is seen picking up slightly to 114.8 from 114.6, after the preliminary consumer confidence data came in higher than anticipated and PMI readings also improved at the end of last year. Germany will release a preliminary estimate for full year 2017 GDP (Thursday). Growth last year was much stronger than anticipated and the output gap is closing faster than expected, with PMI reports already suggesting that the manufacturing sector is running into capacity constraints, thus backing expectations for a gradual change in the ECB’s forward guidance in coming months, with the current QE program likely to be the last and net asset purchases expected to be phased out in the last quarter of the year. Ahead of the full year GDP numbers. The calendar also holds German trade data (Tuesday) and French production numbers (Wednesday) for November, as well as Italian and overall Eurozone production data (Wednesday) with the latter seen up 0.5% m/m. Growth remains robust, but so far inflation data has failed to move any closer to target and final December HICP readings from France and Spain are expected to confirm preliminary readings and not bring any surprises.

            UK: Sterling markets have been lacking strong leads so far this year. Unexpected weakness in the December manufacturing and construction PMI surveys were offset by a firmer than expected PMI reading for the dominant service sector. The ONS stats office reported an encouraging tick higher in UK productivity, though to little impact. Brexit-related news or developments, meanwhile, have been thin so soon after the holiday period. Formal negotiations with the EU on a post-Brexit trading relationship are due to start in March.This week’s UK calendar is fairly quiet, highlighted by the private BRC retail sales survey for December (Tuesday) along with November production and trade data (Wednesday). The BoE MPC’s next policy meeting will take place on February 7th-8th, where a no change decision is widely anticipated. The BoE will then also publish its latest quarterly inflation report, with updated growth and inflation projections.

            Japan: is on holiday Monday observing Coming of Age Day. December consumer confidence (Tuesday) is expected to improve to 45.5 from 44.9. November current account data (Friday) should show the surplus narrowing to JPY 1,900 bln from 2,176 bln.

            China: December CPI and PPI are due (Wednesday) with the former seen rising to a 2.0% y/y pace from 1.7%, while the latter slows to 5.0% y/y from 5.8% previously. December loan growth and new yuan loans are also tentatively due (Wednesday) with the latter forecast at CNY 900.0 bln from 1,120 bln in November. The December trade report (Friday) should reveal a narrowed surplus of $37.0 bln from $40.2 bln in November.

            Australia: Australia building approvals (Tuesday) are expected to dip 0.5% in November after the 0.9% gain in October. ANZ job ads for December are also due Tuesday. November retail sales (Thursday) are seen rising 0.3% after the 0.5% increases in October. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s docket is clear this week. Indeed, the Bank’s event schedule is empty until the policy meeting on February 6. No change to the current 1.50% setting for the cash rate is expected.

            Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

            Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

            Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

            Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

            Click HERE to READ more Market news.


            Andria Pichidi
            Market Analyst
            HotForex


            Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

            Comment


            • Date : 9th January 2017.

              MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th January 2017.




              FX News Today

              European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets moved broadly higher overnight. The Hang Seng headed for an 11th straight gain, led by property developers and energy producers and moving closer to the record levels, Japanese indices were underpinned by electronics makers and chemicals, despite a stronger Yen, with the Nikkei closing up 0.57%. FTSE 100 futures are also up, but U.S. stock futures are narrowly mixed, as Treasury yields rise in tandem with most long yields in Asia. Only China’s 20-year declined again, while Japan’s 10-year gained 1.1 bp and the 10-year Treasury 0.6 bp. European yields headed broadly south yesterday, despite gains on stock markets, but global movements suggest a corrections in bonds. The data calendar today has German trade and production numbers at the start of the session, as well as French trade and Eurozone jobless numbers.

              German Nov industrial production jumped 3.4% m/m in November, a much stronger than expected rebound after two months of decline that left the annual rate at 5.6% y/y, up from 2.8% y/y in October and highlighting the strength of the manufacturing sectors in particular. Manufacturing orders may have disappointed in November, but the underlying trend remains strong, while surveys point to ongoing optimism about the outlook that is underpinning job creation and will likely feed into wage deals. German trade surplus widens as exports jump.Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 22.4 bln in November, up from 19.9 bln in the previous month, as exports rose 4.1% m/m, outpacing the 2.3% m/m rise in imports. The three months trend improved further indicating that net exports underpinned overall growth in the last quarter of 2017, although accumulated data for the first 11 months of 2017 show that surpluses in both current account and trade actually declined slightly compared to the corresponding period 2016, highlighting that for once this was not an export led German recovery, but rather than improving global growth is also benefiting German exports, while the strong EUR is helping to keep the import bill down.

              Charts of the Day



              Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

              Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

              Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

              Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

              Click HERE to READ more Market news.


              Andria Pichidi
              Market Analyst
              HotForex


              Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

              Comment


              • Date : 10th January 2017.

                MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th January 2017.




                FX News Today

                European Fixed Income Outlook: The global stock rally started to fade in Asia with a stronger Yen and higher global yields weighing. The BoJ’s implicit tapering and the ECB’s reduced monthly purchase targets acted as a reminder that central bank support is slowly being phased out and Japanese indices headed south. The ASX 200 was also down, but Hang Seng and CSI 300 were underpinned, by data and as China’s central bank weakened its daily fixing on the yuan by the most since September. Yields continued to rise and the Japanese 10-year is up 1.9 bp and the 10-year Treasury yield up 1.7 bp, but South Korea is leading the way as safe haven flows are being reversed slowly. FTSE 100 futures as well as U.S. futures are heading south and against that background European stock markets are likely to retreat, and bonds are likely to remain under pressure ahead of supply from Italy and Germany today. The calendar has industrial production data out of France and the U.K. as well as U.K. trade numbers.

                FX Update: The dollar has traded steady-to-firmer, overall. EURUSD has remained heavy, meeting good selling interest above 1.1950, though so far remaining above yesterday’s 12-day low at 1.1915. Cable and AUDUSD have been seeing similar price actions, aided by the spike in U.S. Treasury yields over the last day, while the dialogue between North and South Korea has seen a rotation out of haven assets and currencies. USDJPY has declined for a second consecutive day, logging an eight-day low of 112.16. The move has been driven by broader yen gains, with EURJPY and AUDJPY, among other yen crosses, also down. Market participants have been continuing to digest the BoJ’s QE tapering announcement of yesterday, despite some market narratives downplaying the taping move has being little more than a baby step, with the central bank likely to remain committed to its YCC (yield curve control) policy in the face of the chronic undershooting of the inflation target.

                Main Macro Events Today

                UK Manufacturing Production – expected to rise to 0.3%m/m from 0.1%m/m and to fall to 2.8%y/y from 3.9%y/y. Industrial production expected to rise 0.5% m/m and 1.9% y/y.

                UK Goods Trade Balance

                Canadian Building Permits – Building permit values are expected to rise 1.0% m/m in November after the 3.5% gain in October.

                Crude Oil Inventories & US Imports – MBA mortgage market data is due, along with import prices seen +0.2% in December and export prices flat (median 0.3%). EIA energy inventory data are on deck as well.

                Charts of the Day



                Support and Resistance Levels



                Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                Andria Pichidi
                Market Analyst
                HotForex


                Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                Comment


                • Date : 11th January 2017.

                  MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th January 2017.




                  FX News Today

                  European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly slightly lower, yields are coming down after the sharp move higher in recent days and 10-year JGBs shed -1.1 bp while Treasury yields are down 2.0 bp at 2.537%. Global equity indices have reached levels that raised concerns of overheating, while a number of bond auctions added to the uptick in yields yesterday. But while Germany under-subscribed 10-year auction yesterday spooked investors, strong demand in the USD 20 bln 10-year Treasury auction helped to calm nerves and saw yields heading sound again. Losses on Asian stock markets meanwhile were modes. The Nikkei closed down -0.33%, U.S. futures are narrowly mixed and UK100 futures are moving higher and with the EUR holding below 1.20 against the Dollar, the GER30 may be able to recover somewhat after under-performing yesterday, as full year 2017 GDP estimates are likely to show very strong growth, while Bund futures are likely to open higher.

                  FX Update: The dollar is firmer after China rebutted yesterday’s Bloomberg story alleging that it was pondering a reduction on U.S. Treasury purchases. USD-JPY broke a run of three consecutive declines, which printed a seven-week low at 111.27 yesterday, in recouping to the upper 111.0s. China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange said that the Bloomberg report was based on “false” information. The remark saw the yield on the 10-year T-note tick lower while giving the dollar a lift. The narrow trade-weighted USD index recovered to within a few pips of 92.47 after seeing a low of 91.92 yesterday. EUR-USD has ebbed back under 1.1950 after yesterday foraying above 1.2000 in the wake of the Bloomberg story. Market participants will now return focus on incoming fundamental leads while continuing to digest this week’s BoJ tapering of its QE program.

                  Main Macro Events Today

                  BOE Credit Conditions Survey

                  ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

                  Canadian NHPI – November new home price index expected at 0.2%m/m from 0.1% m/m.

                  US PPI & Unemployment claims – Headline PPI may dip 0.2% in December vs 0.4%, while core is expected at 0.2% vs 0.3%. Initial jobless claims are projected to drop 5k to 245k for the January 5 week.

                  Charts of the Day



                  Support and Resistance Levels



                  Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                  Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                  Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                  Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                  Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                  Andria Pichidi
                  Market Analyst
                  HotForex


                  Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                  Comment


                  • Date : 12th January 2017.

                    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th January 2017.




                    FX News Today

                    European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets moved mostly higher, with Hang Seng and CSI 300 outperforming again, while the Nikkei underperformed and declined -0.24% as the Yen moved higher against the dollar. Oil giants led the way in Hong Kong. 10-year JGB and Treasury yields climbed and recent volatility in bond markets seemed to subside somewhat, although the BoJ and ECB reminding markets this week that central bank support is slowly on the way out, yields are likely to continue to trend higher. UK100 futures are rising in tandem with U.S. futures. The calendar only has second tier data in the form of inflation numbers out of Spain, France and Sweden.

                    FX Update: The dollar has remained on a softening tack, with the narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) extending yesterday’s declines from levels around 92.50 to a 91.75 low today,, which matches the four-month low that was posted on January 2. The greenback has logged fresh lows versus the euro, sterling and Australian dollar, among other currencies, in the early part of the Asia-Pacific session after Fed’s Dudley saying that the case for gradualist approach to tightening monetary policy remains strong, arguing that the pace of rate hikes could be accelerated if need be. EURUSD clocked a five-day peak at 1.2066, with subsequent dips remaining shallow. AUDUSD traded above 0.7900 for the first time since late September, logging a peak of 0.7904. The hawkish-leaning ECB minutes, yesterday, and the BoJ’s QE tapering announcement earlier in the week, have been factors generating a softer dollar theme this week, via EURUSD buying and USDJPY selling, respectively.

                    Main Macro Events Today

                    US CPI & Core CPI – Headline CPI is forecast to increase 0.2% in December vs 0.4% , while core is set to rise 0.2% vs 0.1% — leaving core y/y at 1.7%.

                    US Retail Sales – December retail sales forecast to rise 0.4% vs 0.8%, while increasing 0.4% ex-auto. Lastly is business inventories that should rise 0.3% in November vs -0.1%.

                    German Buba President Weidmann Speech

                    Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Rosengren Speech

                    Charts of the Day



                    Support and Resistance Levels



                    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                    Andria Pichidi
                    Market Analyst
                    HotForex


                    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                    Comment


                    • MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th January 2017.



                      Main Macro Events This Week

                      Wall Street soared to record highs again last Friday and outperformed most global indices. The bullish impacts of U.S. tax reform and deregulation have manifested in signs of stronger growth and have led to expectations for improved earnings. The momentum has helped boost European and Asian shares as well.
                      United States: U.S. markets are closed Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday. The hefty rally on Wall Street has helped lead global markets higher so far in 2018. While there’s plenty of unease to go around at these lofty levels, the underlying optimism suggested by earnings expectations, the bullish momentum, and the forecasts for sustained economic growth ahead suggest the rally can be extended. Earnings should be the guiding force in the markets this week, with some impact from economic data. The spending bill will be monitored ahead of a partial government shutdown on Friday as the spending bill runs out. Deal making could get contentious, particularly after President Trump remains at odds with the Democrats on “Wall” funding, while the kerfuffle over the President’s language last week add to the divisive environment.
                      This week, Manufacturing and production data headline the economic calendar. The January Empire State manufacturing index (Tuesday)should rise 1 point to 19 after falling 1.4 points to 18.0 in December. Industrial production for December (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.4% after the 0.2% November gain, to bring capacity utilization up to 77.2% from 77.1%. The Philly Fed index (Thursday)should fall to 25.0 in January from the upwardly revised 27.9 in December. The NAHB homebuilder sentiment index is due Wednesday. Housing starts (Thursday)should fall to a 1.275 mln pace in December after November’s 3.3% surge to 1.297 mln. Preliminary January consumer sentiment (Friday) is expected to rise to 97.0 after the index slid 0.8 points to 95.9 in December, supported by the bull run in equities and the passage of the tax bill.
                      Canada: The BoC is in the spotlight this week, with Wednesday’sannouncement expected to reveal a 25 basis point (bp) rate hike to 1.25%. The Monetary Policy Report, also due Wednesday, should reveal a still cautiously upbeat growth outlook that is consistent with a gradual normalization path. The data slate is thin, leaving the focus firmly on the Bank of Canada: December existing home sales are expected Monday, while November manufacturing is due Friday.The manufacturing shipment values expected to rise 1.0% m/m after the 0.4% dip in October.
                      Europe: After Draghi failed to deliver the expected tweak in the forward guidance in December, the minutes from the meeting reminded investors that “postponed” is not “canceled” and that the ECB is still on the way to phase out net asset purchases after the end of the current program in September. However, gradualism remains the order of the day and this week’s data releases could help the markets settle down further, with final HICP readings for the Eurozone coming with a slight risk to the downside after downward revisions to Spanish and French readings. ECB speakers include Weidmann and Nowotny and are likely to come in on the hawkish side, however, so a balanced picture. Meanwhile political risks seem to be receding somewhat with Germany finally heading for a functioning government after Merkel reached a preliminary agreement with the Social Democrats in the exploratory talks for a rerun of the grand coalition, although the SPD’s party conference still has to clear the talks.
                      The European calendar focuses on the remaining final inflation numbers for December. We are looking for German HICP (Tuesday)to be confirmed at 1.6% y/y and the Italian HICP (Tuesday) at 1.0%, which should leave the overall Eurozone CPI reading at 1.4% y/y unchanged from the preliminary number and down from November. European calendar has also has November PPI data for November, seen falling back to 2.3% y/y, from 2.5% y/y. The Eurozone schedule includes November trade as well as current account data and supply also continues to flood in with Spain and France auctioning bonds on Thursday and Germany selling 30 year Bunds on Wednesday.
                      UK: The week ahead brings some key data releases, highlighted by December inflation and retail sales data. Brexit-related developments of significance have been in short supply so far in the new year, but are likely to pick up. Talks between the UK and EU on a transition deal are due to start presently, although negotiations on a future trading relationship with the EU are not due to begin until March. As for this week’s data calendar, UK CPI for December (Tuesday)expected to have a moderation to 3.0% y/y after November’s 3.1% y/y clip, an outcome which would square with BoE projections. December retail sales are also due (Friday), where a decline is expected of 0.8% m/m, which would correct some of the 1.1% m/m gain that was seen in November. Overall, data in-line with expectations shouldn’t cast much bearing on sterling markets.
                      Japan:December PPI (Tuesday) is penciled in at a 3.1% y/y pace, slightly slower than the 3.5% previously. The November tertiary index (Tuesday) is forecast rising 0.5% from the prior 0.3% bounce after slipping slightly in August (-0.1%) and September (-0.2%). November core machine orders (Wednesday) should fall 2.0% m/m from the 5.0% increase in October. The index has bounced around on a monthly basis but posted a 3.9% 3-month change in October, and is up 2.3% y/y. However, there’s risk of a deeper slide in November given the firmer yen. Revised November industrial production is due Thursday. Production posted a 0.6% gain initially, for a second straight monthly gain (0.5% in October).
                      China: December industrial production (Thursday) is forecast to rise 6.1% y/y, unchanged from November. December retail sales are anticipated to have risen 10.3% y/y from 10.2%, while December fixed investment is seen up 7.0% y/y from 7.2%.
                      Australia: Housing investment (Wednesday) is seen rising 1.0% in November after the 0.6% dip in October. Employment (Friday) is expected to expand 25.0k in December after the 61.6k bounce in November. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 5.4%. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s has another clean slate this week. Indeed, the Bank’s event schedule is empty until the policy meeting on February 6, where no change to the current 1.50% setting for the cash rate,is expected.


                      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                      Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                      Andria Pichidi
                      Market Analyst
                      HotForex


                      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                      Comment


                      • Date : 16th January 2017.

                        MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th January 2017.




                        FX News Today

                        European Fixed Income Outlook:Stock markets moved higher in Asia overnight after shrugging off early losses, U.S. futures are also moving higher, but European markets are likely to continue to struggle with the weak USD. The EUR in particular has been pushed higher as markets run away with rate hike fears after last week’s ECB minutes, ignoring the hint that any change in the forward guidance will focus on net asset purchases, rather than the sequencing of exit steps, i.e. interest rates, which are still not expected to end until well after net asset purchases have been halted. Yields moved higher in Europe yesterday and stock markets struggled. Today’s focus will be on final inflation readings out of the Eurozone, but primarily key U.K. inflation data and a dip in the headline CPI rate is expected to 3.0% from 3.1% y/y in the previous month.
                        FX Update: USDJPY has lifted to the upper 110.0s after opening in Tokyo just under 110.50. There were some remarks of disquiet about yen strength from both finance minister, Aso, and the economy minister, Motegi, which followed a six consecutive session run lower in USDJPY that yesterday left a four-month low at 110.33. Japanese December PPI also came in a smidgeon shy of expectations, at 3.1% y/y, while another USDJPY supporting influence is a large USDJPY option structure with a 111.20 strike which is due to expire at the New York cut today. USDJPY posted an intra-day peak at 110.98. Resistance at 111.05-7, and support is at 110.29-30.
                        Charts of the Day



                        Main Macro Events Today
                        • UK PPI- December PPI is penciled in at a 0.5% y/y, slower than the 1.8% previously.
                        • UK CPI- A moderation is expected to 3.0% y/y after November’s 3.1% y/y clip, an outcome which would square with BoE projections.
                        • US Empire State Manufacturing Index – The January Empire State manufacturing index should rise 1 point to 19 after falling 1.4 points to 18.0 in December
                        • SNB Chairman Jordan Speech
                        Support and Resistance Levels



                        Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                        Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                        Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                        Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                        Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                        Andria Pichidi
                        Market Analyst
                        HotForex



                        Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                        Comment


                        • Date : 17th January 2017.

                          MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th January 2017.




                          FX News Today

                          European Fixed Income Outlook: Stock markets declined in Asia overnight in the wake of a correction on Wall Street Tuesday after the dollar recovered. The Nikkei closed down -0.35% the Hand Seng is down -0.16%. FTSE 100 futures are also in the red, but U.S. futures are slightly higher. 10-year yields picked up in the U.S. and Japan. Stock indices remain at high levels but recent advances have triggered warnings of overheating as focus turns to the earnings season and central banks. Today’s calendar has the final reading of Eurozone HICP inflation, which is expected to confirm the headline rate at 1.4% y/y and core at 0.9% y/y, adding to the arguments of the doves at the ECB who are still reluctant to confirm to a final end date for QE just yet.

                          FX Update: EURUSD bottomed at 1.2196 early in the N.Y. session yesterday, before making its way to 1.2248 highs into the London close. The euro dropped sharply on political concerns in Germany, with some SPD factions reportedly uncertain, or in outright rejection, of proposals to form a grand coalition. This rattled EURUSD and euro crosses, which had been aggressively bid up in recent sessions. Potential for further fallout in Germany may keep euro bulls sidelined for the time being. Meanwhile, ECB speeches also put some pressure on the Euro. ECB hawk Weidmann suggests rate hike won’t come before 2019. The Bundesbank President once again stressed his preference to end net asset purchases this year, but at the same time repeated his effort to play down the risk of a rate hike already this year, which flared up after the release of the minutes. ECB Vice President Constancio eyes sudden movements in EUR. At the same time he, in line with other council members, tried to play down the implications of the minutes from the last meeting saying that even if the council sees the need for a gradual adjustment in the forward guidance “if the economy continues to grow and inflation continues to move” towards target, “this does not mean that changes will be immediate”. Constancio stressed that the ECB is not changing the path of its monetary policy, and that monetary policy will remain very accommodative for a long time.

                          Main Macro Events Today

                          Eurozone CPI – is forecast to remain unchanged at 1.4%y/y, while core is set to fall 0.9%y/y vs 1.1%y/y .

                          US Industrial Production – expected to rise 0.4% after the 0.2% November gain, to bring capacity utilization up to 77.2% from 77.1%

                          BoC Monetary Policy Report – A 25 bp hike to 1.25% is expected today. The Monetary Policy Report, should reveal a still cautiously upbeat growth outlook that is consistent with a gradual normalization path. Labour market slack and uncertainty kept the Bank of Canada (BoC) from implementing further rate hikes in October and December of last year. But recent economic reports suggest labour market slack has seen significant unwinding. Of course, uncertainties remain elevated, notably on the outlook for NAFTA.

                          FOMC Member Kaplan and Mester Speech

                          Charts of the Day



                          Support and Resistance Levels



                          Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                          Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                          Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                          Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                          Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                          Andria Pichidi
                          Market Analyst
                          HotForex


                          Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                          Comment


                          • Date : 18th January 2017.

                            MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th January 2017.




                            FX News Today

                            European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed overnight, with Nikkei and ASX 200 closing in the red, while Chinese shares rallied ahead of key data releases including GDP numbers. FTSE 100 and U.S. stock futures are narrowly mixed, while 10-year JGB and Treasury yields slightly lower on the day, South Korea bonds rallied after the BoK held rates steady and warned of overheating in cryptocurrency markets. EGB yields moved marginally higher on Thursday, with Bunds outperforming after ECB officials tried to calm tightening concerns and keep a lid on the euro. Still, that the ECB is on the way to phase out net asset purchases this year is pretty clear, with the only question whether there will be an abrupt end in October, as the hawks are suggesting, or a gradual taper in Q4. Released overnight, U.K. RICS house price data came in stronger than expected. There are no other key data releases scheduled leaving the focus on the Bundesbank/IMF conference with speakers including Weidmann and Coeure, as well as French and Spanish bond auctions.

                            FX Update: The dollar edged out fresh recovery highs versus the euro and other currencies. EURUSD logged a four-session low of 1.2165 before recouping to around 1.2200. The move reflected a dollar dynamic, with EURJPY and other euro crosses having held relatively steady today, even though the airing of concerns about the common currency’s ascent by some ECB officials, along with concerns on the German political front, helped catalysed the correction from 37-month highs in EURUSD. USDJPY lifted to a four-session high of 111.48 in Tokyo today, extending the recovery from Wednesday’s four-month low at 110.19. The recovery broke a run of seven consecutive down . Good selling interest into 111.50 capped the advance, however. Equity markets also turned mixed-to-lower in Asia, despite Wall Street ascending to fresh highs, having been lifted by earnings and Apple’s announcement on a large cash repatriation. Elsewhere, USD-CAD has settled at near net unchanged levels relative to levels that were prevailing just ahead of yesterday’s BoC rate hike (which met expectations while be accompanied with cautious guidance). Sterling is the strongest currency on the day, posting a near 0.5% average gain versus the dollar, euro and yen in post-London close trading. Remarks from BoE MPC member Sauders warning that pay growth will accelerate in the UK during 2018 and that unemployment may drop to multi-decade lows under 4.0%, gave Hey Majesty’s currency a boost, reportedly encouraging interbank and near-term speculative accounts to run at sell stops in EUR-GBP.

                            Main Macro Events Today

                            US Housing Starts & Building Permits – Housing starts should fall to a 1.275 mln pace in December after November’s 3.3% surge to 1.297 mln, while Building permits expected at 1.290M from 1.298M seen on November.

                            US Jobless Claims – Unemployment claims is seen slightly lower at 250K than 261K last week.

                            US Crude Oil Inventories

                            Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey – The Philly Fed index should fall to 25.0 in January from the upwardly revised 27.9 in December. The reading was at 24.1 a year ago, and was as high as 36.4 in 2011.

                            ECB Cœuré Speech

                            Charts of the Day



                            Support and Resistance Levels



                            Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                            Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                            Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                            Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                            Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                            Andria Pichidi
                            Market Analyst
                            HotForex


                            Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                            Comment


                            • Date : 19th January 2017.

                              MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th January 2017.




                              FX News Today

                              European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets moved mostly higher led by industrial and tech stocks and the Treasury yields climbed as investors nervously eye the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, as the federal spending authority is set to expire today, which weighed on the dollar. The Yen advanced, but the Nikkei still managed a 0.19% gain and the CSI 300 is up 0.50%. FTSE 100 futures are fractionally higher, U.S. futures marginally in the red. Core EGB yields climbed with Treasury yields yesterday, but peripherals outperformed and Eurozone spreads narrowed amid signs that the ECB remains very cautious in its approach to changes in the guidance, even as hawks slowly gain the upper hand. Today’s calendar has U.K. retail sales and Eurozone current account and BoP data after PPI numbers at the start of the session.

                              FX Update: The dollar has traded softer on U.S. political concerns, though has remained above recent trend lows versus the yen, euro and most other currencies. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) is down 0.2%, making a low at 90.33 and swinging the 37-month low of Wednesday at 90.14 back into scope. The House of Reps passed the stopgap funding bill yesterday, and the vote now goes to the Senate, which has delayed its vote until later today and where there remains significant opposition to the bill. Republicans have been making amendments to the bill in an attempt to entice Democrat votes, but Democrats signalled that they have enough Senate opposition to stop the bill, which does not give sufficient concessions to them on immigration, government spending and other issues. According to the Washington Post, 39 Democrat and at least two GOP Senate members are known to be in opposition, leaving the bill short of the 60 votes needed to advance. This will be the dominant focus for markets today for market participants. Should the vote fail, government agencies will start shutting down from tomorrow — a scenario that would likely spark heavy dollar selling.

                              Main Macro Events Today

                              US Partial Government Shutdown

                              Swiss Product and Import Prices – should fall to a 0.4% in December after November’s 0.6%.

                              US Retail Sales – December retail sales expected to show a decline of 0.8% m/m (median -0.6% m/m), which would correct some of the 1.1% m/m gain that was seen in November.

                              Canadian Manufacturing Sales – manufacturing shipment values expected to rise 1.9% m/m after the 0.4% dip in October.

                              Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – expected to rise to 97.0 after the index slid 0.8 points to 95.9 in December, supported by the bull run in equities and the passage of the tax bill.

                              FOMC Member Quarles Speech

                              Charts of the Day



                              Support and Resistance Levels



                              Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                              Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                              Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                              Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                              Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                              Andria Pichidi
                              Market Analyst
                              HotForex


                              Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                              Comment


                              • Date : 22nd January 2017.

                                MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd January 2017.




                                FX News Today

                                The immediate focus will be on the U.S. government which went on partial shutdown in the wee hours on Saturday as the Senate failed to pass a continuing resolution. Critical government services will remain open, though many will work without pay. And if the standoff lasts into Monday, thousands of workers will be furloughed. This situation is nothing new, with the last occurrence in 2013, and there’s no significant impact on the economy. Once past the shutdown hoopla, focus will return to a series of central bank meetings with the BoJ and ECB.

                                United States: In the U.S. the first FOMC meeting of 2018 is on the horizon, January 30, 31, but no changes are expected. This will be the last meeting chaired by Ms. Yellen, while it will include the new voting rotation with Williams, Mester, Bostic, and Barkin. Meanwhile, we’re still waiting for the Senate to confirm Jay Powell as the new Fed chairman. Meanwhile, the economic calendar includes a number of releases, headlined by the Advance Q4 GDP report and durable orders at the end of the week, along with housing stats. The slate kicks off with an update on the Chicago Fed national activity index (Monday), followed by the Richmond Fed index (Tuesday). MBA mortgage applications are due (Wednesday), along with FHFA home prices, Markit PMIs and December existing home sales. Advanced goods trade deficit is forecast to narrow to -$69 bln in December (Thursday) from -$70 bln, while initial jobless claims are set to rebound 15k to 235k from 45-year lows of 220k for the January 20th week. New home sales are expected to ease 12.7% to a 640k pace in December from 733k highs (+17.5%) in November (Thursday) and leading indicators are on tap to rise 0.2% in December from 0.4% in November. The week rounds out with advance Q4 GDP (Friday) set to increase 2.8%, a tad slower than 3.2% in Q3.

                                Canada: the calendar is highlighted by the December CPI, but we also receive the final reports that inform the November GDP estimate. Wholesale trade begins the week (Monday), with an 1.0% gain expected for November shipment values following the 1.5% rise in October. Retail sales (Thursday) are expected to grow 1.2% in value terms during November after the 1.5% increase in October. The CPI (Friday) is projected to slow to a 1.9% y/y pace in December from 2.1% in November. November average weekly earnings (Thursday) are expected to edge 0.1% higher (m/m, sa) after the 0.1% dip in October. The January CFIB Business Barometer Survey of small and medium business sentiment is scheduled for release on Thursday.

                                Europe: The ECB meeting is the big event risk for this week. Speculation of a major shift in guidance has been running high since the release of the minutes and clearly the hawks at the council have been more vocal in the run up to the meeting. Still, Vice President Constancio stressed that while officials agreed that the guidance will have to change ahead of the end of the current QE program, he also stressed that this doesn’t have to happen immediately. And with officials fretting about the recent EUR strength, only small language changes and no firm commitment to the end of net asset purchases, is expected. Still, it is clear that the ECB is on the way to phase out net asset purchases in the last quarter of this year, either in gradual steps, as the doves will favor, or by just stopping purchases from October onwards. Data releases, meanwhile, focus on an almost full round of confidence numbers, with PMI readings and German ZEW and Ifo surveys ion tap.

                                UK: The calendar this week brings monthly government borrowing data (Tuesday), the January CBI surveys on industrial trends and distributive sales (due Tuesday and Friday, respectively), the monthly labour market report (Wednesday), and the second estimate for Q4 GDP (Friday).

                                Japan: The BoJ announces its decision (Tuesday), and no change in rates or the policy stance is expected, despite the minor tweak to bond purchases made on January 9 when the Bank trimmed its purchases of longer dated JGBs. The markets may have gotten ahead of the BoJ’s timeline in terms of discussing normalization. As for data, the November all-industry index (Tuesday) is penciled in rising 0.8% on the month after the 0.3% October gain. The December trade report (Wednesday) should reveal a widening of the surplus to JPY 600.0 bln from 112.2 bln previously. December national CPI (Friday) should show the overall index rising to a 1.0% y/y pace from 0.6% previously, with the core reading at 1.0% y/y, from 0.9%. Tokyo January CPI (Friday) is expected unchanged at 1.0% y/y overall, and steady at 0.8% y/y on a core basis. December services PPI (Friday) will likely be unchanged at 0.8%

                                Australia: The calendar is empty of top tier economic data and Reserve Bank of Australia events. The Bank’s event schedule is empty until the policy meeting on February 6. The calendar is empty of top tier economic data and Reserve Bank of Australia events. The Bank’s event schedule is empty until the policy meeting on February 6.

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                                Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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                                Andria Pichidi
                                Market Analyst
                                HotForex


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