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  • Date : 12th February 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th February 2018.




    FX News Today

    Volatility had mostly expired under the boot of the Federal Reserve QE policy stance and that of its central banking brethren. But as central bankers have begun to take their foot pedal by undertaking quantitative tapering and tightening, vol has proven that it’s “not dead yet,” but merely dormant until the appropriate moment.Looking ahead, input from around the globe should be mixed this week, with stock markets overseas taking their cue from a suddenly reflexive Wall Street.

    United States: U.S. economic calendar starts out at a snail’s pace, with the Treasury budget (Monday) forecast to post a $51 bln surplus (median $47 bln) for January vs -$23.2 bln. The NFIB small business optimism index (Tuesday) will provide the main entertainment. MBA mortgage market indices (Wednesday) are due, along with a potentially key update on January CPI, and January retail sales. The calendar really loads up (Thursday) with PPI, Philly Fed, Empire, claims, production, NAHB housing market index, and TIC data. The week will round out (Friday) with an update on January housing starts, which are expected to rise 0.6% to a 1.20 mln unit pace. Fedspeak will be unusually limited this week, with just Cleveland Fed hawk Mester on tap (Tuesday) to discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce from 8 ET.

    Canada: In Canada, the data and events docket is sparse. The December manufacturing report (Friday) is expected to reveal a 0.5% gain in shipment values after the 3.4% surge in November. The Teranet/National HPI for January is due Wednesday, while January existing home sales (Thursday)are on tap. ADP publishes its payrolls report for January (Thursday). BoC Deputy Governor Schembri (Thursday) speaks to the Manitoba Association for Business Economics in Winnipeg. His remarks will be available on the BoC’s website at 13:30 ET.

    Europe: Market volatility seems to be here to stay as investors adjust to the prospect of higher yields and less central bank support, and so far at least officials seem to be viewing developments with calm. Bundesbank President Weidmann played down both the strength of the EUR as well as the sell-off in stocks. Meanwhile data releases this week including Q4 GDP numbers and some final January inflation numbers, though they are unlikely to challenge the ECB’s baseline assumption of robust economic expansion amid a sanguine inflation environment that only gradually starts to move toward the ECB’s target. Eurozone GDP growth (Wednesday) is expected to be confirmed at 0.6% q/q , in line with the preliminary number. The German Q4 GDP(Wednesday) is expected at 0.7%, down from 0.8% in the previous quarter and Italy GDP growth at 0.6% q/q (median 0.5%). German HICP inflation (Wednesday) meanwhile is expected to be confirmed at just -0.7% y/y and the Spanish headline reading also at just 0.7% y/y, both far below the ECB’s upper limit for price stability. However, recent German wage deals suggest a gradual build in domestic price pressures going ahead as the labor market continues to tighten. The data calendar also has Eurozone production (Wednesday), and trade numbers (Thursday), as well as ECB speakers including Weidmann and Mersch. Supply comes from Spain and France on Thursday, while Germany auctions 30 year Bunds on Wednesday.

    UK: The BoE last week upgraded its assessment for economic growth while at the same time acknowledging that productivity has been lackluster, the sum of which led to an unexpected ratchet in hawkish guidance, leading to a possible rate hike from November to May. However, Brexit-related concerns — an area of emphasized contingency for the BoE — were soon to resurface. Brexit negotiations have entered a crucial phase, with both the EU and UK seeking to make a tentative accord on both a post-Brexit transition period and the form of a post-Brexit trading relationship, all in time for the EU leaders’ summit in late March. The data calendar this week is highlighted by the release of January inflation data(Tuesday), along with retail sales figures for the same month(Friday). The headline CPI expected to dip to 2.9% y/y after 3.0% in December, which would continue a modest climb down from the 3.1% cycle peak that was seen in November. An as-expected outcome would comfortably fit BoE projections, with the central bank forecasting CPI to have retreated to 2.2% at the two-year forecasting horizon in Q1 2020.

    Japan: Japan will be closed Monday from National Foundation Day. The markets will reopen Tuesday to he January PPI report, for which a 2.8% y/y reading is expected, slowing from the 3.1% pace previously. Preliminary Q4 GDP (Tuesday) is seen rising 1.1%, versus the previous 2.5% clip. December machinery orders(Thursday) are pencilled in posting a 2.0% m/m decline after climbing 5.7% in November. Revised December industrial production is also on deck Thursday.

    Australia: the employment report (Thursday) is the focus. The total employment is expected at 20.0k gain during January after the 34.7k gain in December. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 5.5%. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Assistant Governor (Economic) Ellis speaks from Sydney (Tuesday).Governor Lowe appears before the House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on Economics (Friday).


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    Comment


    • Date : 13th February 2018.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th February 2018.



      FX News Today

      European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly moved higher. Japanese markets returned from yesterday’s holiday’s in a good mood, but pared gains as the yen strengthened and Nikkei closed with a loss of -0.65%, the Topix was down -0.88%. In Europe, 10-year Bund yields are down -0.7 bp at 0.744% in opening trade, the 2-year is up 0.3 bp at -0.591%, leaving the curve flatter. 10-year Treasury yields are down -1.1 bp at 2.848% while JGBs underperformed in Asia and the 10-year nudged slightly higher despite a stronger yen. European stock futures are heading south, in tandem with U.S. futures setting up European equities for a correction from yesterday’s gains. Markets remain nervous as long yields continue to trend higher. The focus in Europe today will be on U.K. inflation data, with CPI expected to fall below 3% for the first time since August.

      FX Update:The dollar traded mostly softer as the global equity rebound extended in Asia after Wall Street yesterday completed its biggest two-day rebound in just over two years. The U.S. currency has been correlating inversely with global stock market direction of late on the causation that risk-on phases have seen investors divest of dollars and dollar assets in favour of higher yielding opportunities, and vice versa. The narrow trade-weighted USD index has declined 0.3% to 89.94, earlier clocking a four-session low at 89.88. Cable and USDCAD have remained within their respective ranges from yesterday, while USDJPY and yen crosses have traded lower in Tokyo, where markets have reopened after a long weekend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has bucked the global equity rebound, closing with a 0.8% loss, while U.S. equity index futures are also lower. AUDUSD saw a four-day high at 0.7874, aided by data showing Australian January business conditions rising to 19 from 13, with overall confidence lifting to a reading of 12, up from 11. The rand took a hit after the South African Congress ordered President Zuma to resign. News out of Japan today include remarks from Japan Economy Minister Motegi, who argued that Abe’s stance on monetary policy (i.e. ultra dovish) must be maintained. Japan January PPI came in at 0.3% m/m, as expected, after 2.7% y/y in the month prior.

      Charts of the Day



      Main Macro Events Today
        • UK CPI – expected to dip to 2.9% y/y after 3.0% in December, which would continue a modest climb down from the 3.1% cycle peak that was seen in November. An as-expected outcome would comfortably fit BoE projections, with the central bank forecasting CPI to have retreated to 2.2% at the two-year forecasting horizon in Q1 2020.
        • UK PPI – PPI core Input expected to rise to 0.7% in January from 0.1% seen in December.
        • FOMC Member Mester Speech
      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

      Click HERE to READ more Market news.


      Andria Pichidi
      Market Analyst
      HotForex


      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

      Comment


      • Date : 14th February 2018.

        MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th February 2018.




        FX News Today

        European Fixed Income Outlook: Chinese stock markets continued to recover, while Japanese stocks remained under pressure and the ASX 200, also closed in the red today, after gains yesterday. Wall Street managed to close with modest gains yesterday after recovering early losses, but the stronger yen hit Japanese stocks as investors prepare for U.S. CPI, which is judged to be the next directional signal for markets. Long yields declined across the board in Asia, with the 10-year JGB down -0.4 bp, the 10-year Treasury down -1.3 bp. U.S. stock futures and U.K. futures are higher, oil prices little changed at USD 59.17 per barrel.Japanese growth data today disappointed, with Q4 GDP falling to 0.5% q/q growth in they seasonally adjusted annualized figure, off the median forecast of 0.9% growth.

        German GDP growth slowed to 0.6% q/q in Q4, from 0.8% q/q in the third quarter of the year. German Jan HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.4% y/y in line with the preliminary number and versus 1.6% y/y in December. the national CPI rate was confirmed at 1.6% y/y versus 1.7% y/y in December. Energy price inflation continued to decelerate, which contributed to the decline in the headline rate and compensated for higher food prices. Food price inflation has been running at 3% and higher since August last year. Rent prices are also picking up. All in all a lower headline rate than initially expected and an HICP rate that is clearly below the ECB’s target, but with wage growth set to pick up after recent wage agreements and with an ever tighter labour market German inflation is likely to continue to trend higher, despite the set back at the start of the year.

        Charts of the Day


        Main Macro Events Today
        • Eurozone Prelim. GDP – the overall growth rate for the Eurozone is expected to be confirmed at 0.6% q/q , in line with the preliminary number. Anything less than major surprises won’t change the overall picture of a growth trajectory that is looking stronger than previously thought with confidence indicators remaining robust leaving the hawks at the ECB increasingly convinced that the Eurozone won’t need further net asset purchases beyond September.
        • US Retail Sales – January retail sales forecast to rise 0.2% headline and 0.5% ex-auto.
        • US CPI – expected to increase 0.3% headline and just 0.1% core, leaving core y/y at 1.7%, down from 1.8%
        Support and Resistance levels


        Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

        Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

        Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

        Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

        Click HERE to READ more Market news.


        Andria Pichidi
        Market Analyst
        HotForex



        Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

        Comment


        • Date : 15th February 2018.

          MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th February 2018.




          FX News Today

          European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets moved broadly higher, after a strong close on Wall Street yesterday. Investors seem to get slowly used to the idea of further U.S. tightening and a trend higher in global yields, but set backs on the way are still likely. The Nikkei closed with a gain of 1.47%, despite a stronger yen. The ASX 200 gained 1.16% and Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 1.97% and 0.80% respectively. Bund yields continue to rise in opening trade, peripherals are outperforming as risk appetite continues to improve and European stock futures move higher in tandem with U.S. futures, after a strong session in Asia and following on from yesterday’s gains. US and UK100 futures are moving up, suggesting that the recovery in stocks continues and oil prices are higher with the front end WTI future trading at USD 61.83 per barrel. Today’s European calendar is unlikely to shake things up significantly with Eurozone trade numbers for December the main highlight.

          FX Update: The dollar has declined for a fourth-straight session versus the euro and other currencies. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) is presently at a two-week low of 88.80, showing a 0.3% decline on the day and now racking up a 1.8% loss on the week so far. EURUSD lifted to a two-week peak of 1.2487, and AUDUSD also posted a two-week high, while Cable logged a one-week high. USDJPY continued to lead the dollar lower, with the pair showing over a 0.6% loss on the day as the London interbank community take to their desks. This is despite the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to four-year highs during the Asia session, which extended the move seen since yesterday’s hotter than expected U.S. CPI data. The revived risk appetite evident in global markets has been putting U.S. held assets out of favour as investors seek out higher yields, which is weighing on the greenback. With regard to USDJPY specifically, also in the mix were remarks by Japan’s finance minister, Aso, who said that recent yen strength was not sufficient to “require intervention.”

          Charts of the Day




          Main Macro Events Today
          • ECB’s Mersch, Praet and Lautenschlager Speech
          • US PPI – PPI is forecast to rise 0.3% in January, while core may increase 0.2%, though core y/y at 2.0% would be below 2.3% previously.
          • US Unemployment Claims – Initial jobless claims may rebound 9k to 230k for the week ended February 10.
          • US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – may ease slightly to 20.0 in February vs 22.2 and the Empire State index is set to tick up to 18.0 in February vs 17.7.
          Support and Resistance levels


          Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

          Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

          Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

          Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

          Click HERE to READ more Market news.


          Andria Pichidi
          Market Analyst
          HotForex



          Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

          Comment


          • Date : 16th February 2018.

            MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th February 2018.




            FX News Today

            European Fixed Income Outlook: Stock markets mostly moved higher in Asia, after another positive close on Wall Street. China and Hong Kong alongside other markets were closed for Lunar New Year holidays, which muted trading, but the Nikkei gained 1.19%, while the ASX lost early gains and closed with a marginal loss of -0.08%. The yen continued to advance and 10-year JGB’s dipped -0.8 bp to 0.049%, as Kuroda was nominated to lead the BoJ for another five year term. 10-year Treasury yields declined -0.5 to 2.904% and oil prices picked up slightly, with the March Nymex future trading at USD 61.51 per barrel.Kuroda officially nominated for second term as BoJ governor. As widely expected Abe nominated Kuroda to stay another five years and reports that Waseda University professor Wakatabe, along with BoJ Executive Director Amamiya, will take the deputy governor roles were also confirmed. The nominations were sent to the steering committee of parliament’s lower house and will have to be confirmed by both houses of parliament. Wakatabe is known for advocating “bolder monetary easing” and Amamiya has worked closely with Kuroda. The move should ensure another five years of monetary stimulus from the BoJ and is likely to have underpinned the dip in 10-year BoJ yields today.

            FX Update: Another day, another decline in the dollar, which logged a new 38-month low versus the euro, at 1.2554, and a 15-month low against the yen, at 105.54. The USD index (DXY) is down by 0.3%, 88.37, earlier clocking a 37-month low at 88.33. The greenback has also seen fresh lows against most newly developed and developing world currencies. Continued gains in global stock markets have continued to inspire dollar selling, as investors seek out higher yielding opportunities. USDJPY declines came despite the nomination of Kuroda for another term at the helm of the BoJ, along with nominations for the two deputy governor positions of inflationist candidates, Amamiya and Wakatabe.

            Charts of the Day


            Main Macro Events Today
            • UK Retail Sales – a 0.5% m/m rebound is anticipated after the sharp, and at the time much weaker than expected, 1.5% contraction in December.
            • Canadian Manufacturing Sales– shipment values, are expected to reveal a 0.2% gain in December after the 3.4% surge in November. The projection is driven by 0.6% rise in export values during December that came on the heels of a 3.6% surge in November.
            • US Building Permits and housing Starts – January housing starts are expected to rise 0.6% to a 1.23 mln unit pace, while Building Permits are seen at 1.30mln.
            • US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – is forecast to rise to 95.5 in February from 95.7.
            Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

            Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

            Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

            Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

            Click HERE to READ more Market news.


            Andria Pichidi
            Market Analyst
            HotForex



            Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

            Comment


            • Date : 19th February 2018.

              MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th February 2018.




              Main Macro Events This Week
              Inflation fears have consumed the markets this year, and especially in recent sessions. And price dynamics will remain a major focal point going forward since they are a key to central bank policy decisions, which in turn are crucial factors for the markets. Of course the other necessary input for central bankers, as well as the markets, is growth. And there will be plenty of data on both of those elements from around the globe this week, along with Fedspeak and the minutes from the latest FOMC and ECB policy meetings, to add insight.

              United States:In the U.S., the markets are closed Monday for Presidents’ Day. But when action resumes, it will be all about inflation and what it means to the Fed outlook. Most of this month’s major reports on prices are out of the way, but the Fedspeak calendar is heavy and will provide the markets their first real chance to hear what policymakers have to say on both the inflation and growth fronts. Most crucial, perhaps, will be Fed’s written Monetary Policy Report on Friday ahead of Chairman Powell’sFebruary 28 testimony. Also on tap are the FOMC minutes to theJanuary 30, 31 meeting. As for supply, the Treasury is selling $258 bln combined in bills, coupons, and an FRN. Data is thin with just January existing home sales, the Markit PMIs, and initial jobless claims. The FOMC’s release of the Monetary Policy Report (Friday, 11 ET) could be the most important event of the week. This will be the first major action coming out of the new Powell Fed. Fedspeak since last month’s meeting has shown policymakers believing further tightening will be appropriate. In the January policy statement, the markets zeroed in on the Fed’s inclusion of the word “further,” which Dudley later clarified it was meant to show the Fed had more confidence in the economy. Look for a lot of talk about the economic implications from tax reform, wheree Committee is expected to take a cautiously optimistic view on growth, with some concern that a boost to output could push inflation pressures higher.

              This week’s data highlights include January existing home sales and weekly initial jobless claims. Home sales (Wednesday) are expected to slide 0.9% to a 5.520 mln clip, after December’s 3.6% drop to 5.570 mln. Initial jobless claims (Thursday) for the February 17 week will be scrutinized at it coincides with the BLS survey week. Also on tap this week are January leading indicators(Thursday) and the February Markit PMIs.

              Canada: In Canada, the markets are closed Monday for the Family Day holiday. The data docket provides the final ingredients for the December GDP projection, with wholesale sales (Tuesday) and retail sales (Thursday) due out this week. The CPI (Friday)projected to rebound 0.4% m/m in January after the 0.4% drop in December. The CPI should slow to a 1.5% y/y pace from 1.9% y/y thanks to an easy comparison with an elevated January of 2017, which was when CPI jumped 0.9% m/m and expanded at a 2.1% clip due to sharply higher energy prices. Average weekly earnings(Friday) are seen rising 0.3% m/m in December after the 0.6% bounce in November.

              Europe: The ECB is still pumping cash into the economy and likely to do so until the end of the year. And, rate hikes are unlikely to be on the agenda until Q2 next year at the earliest. So, the markets still have a long time to adjust to the changing environment. Nevertheless, with ECB’s net asset purchases likely coming to an end this year, Eurozone peripheral bond markets, along with stocks, are likely to remain twitchy as long yields slowly but steadily trend higher. Eurogroup and Ecofin meetings (Monday)aside, the week also bring the release of the minutes to the January council meeting (Thursday), which will be scrutinized for indications of how far the ECB’s discussions about the expected change in guidance have progressed. A growing number of council members expected to argue for a change in language as the ECB heads toward the March meeting, which will also include updated staff projections.

              Data releases focus on confidence readings for February. The German ZEW Investor Sentiment (Tuesday) expected to dip to 19.0 from 20.4 in January. The February Eurozone manufacturing PMI (Wednesday), meanwhile, is seen falling to 59.4 from 59.6, while the services reading slips to 57.8 from 58.0. Those should leave the composite at 58.5, down from January’s 58.8. Finally the February German Ifo Business Climate (Thursday) is expected to correct to 117.4 from 117.6 in January. Though all are seen posting slight declines, the indices will nevertheless remain at very high levels.The second reading of German Q4 GDP (Friday) is expected to confirm the preliminary growth rate of 0.6% q/q. And with confidence indicators remaining at high levels, the picture is still one of ongoing robust growth going forward. Final Eurozone HICP inflation (Friday), meanwhile should be confirmed at just 1.3 % y/y, with core inflation at just 1.0% y/y, far below the ECB’s 2% target. So, the data will provide something for both the hawks and the doves to argue over.

              UK: The data calendar is relatively busy this week, highlighted by the February CBI surveys on industrial trends and the retail sales(Tuesday and Thursday, respectively), labor data coving December and January (Wednesday), and the second estimate of Q4 GDP (Thursday). Brexit negotiations, now very much at the sharp end, will continue this week. The EU’s chief negotiator Barnier on Friday clarified that the UK’s red lines meant that a Swiss or Norway type model would be out of the question, affirming, once again, that the British government’s have-cake-eat-it approach (maintaining access to the single market without observing the EU’s four freedom of movement pillars for goods, services, capital and people) is simply out of touch with reality.

              Japan: In Japan, the December all-industry index (Wednesday)should rise 1.4% m/m versus the 1.0% November increase. January CPI (Friday) is seen accelerating to 1.4% y/y from 1.0% overall, and up 0.9% y/y on a core basis, unchanged from December’s clip. January services PPI (Friday) is penciled in at an unchanged 0.8% y/y.

              Australia: the wage price index (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.5% in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the identical 0.5% gain in Q3. Wage growth is projected at 2.0% y/y in Q4 after the 2.0% pace in Q3. Construction work done (Wednesday) is anticipated to pull-back 12.0% after the 15.7% bounce in Q3 (q/q, sa). Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Financial System) Bullock appears at the Responsible Lending and Borrowing Summit, Sydney(Tuesday). The minutes to the RBA’s February meeting will be released Tuesday.


              Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

              Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

              Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

              Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

              Click HERE to READ more Market news.


              Andria Pichidi
              Market Analyst
              HotForex



              Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

              Comment


              • Date : 20th February 2018.

                MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th February 2018.




                FX News Today

                European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian markets headed south in tandem with U.S. futures, after sentiment turned sour once again during the European session yesterday and yields resumed their uptrend. The Topix closed with a loss of -0.7265, after gaining more than 2% yesterday. The Hang Seng was down -0.23% as of 6:40GMT, while mainland China remained closed for a holiday. EGB yields moved broadly higher at the start of the week, with core markets outperforming and stock markets correcting as risk aversion picked up again. Trading was quieter than usual with U.S. and Canada on holiday and Hong Kong and China among others closed during the Asian session. Japanese stocks still managed to rally, but while European markets opened slightly higher, they quickly pared gains and as of 15:44GMT the GER30 was down -0.40%, the UK100 down -0.51%. Italian stock and bond markets underperformed as the election casts is shadows. The 10-year Bund gained 2.8 bp today and is at 0.73%, the Gilt is up 1.6 bp at 1.597%, while the Italian 10-year is up 6.8 bp at 2.044%. The short end outperformed and 2-year yields are down -0.1 bp in Germany and up a mere 0.7 bp in the U.K., leaving the curve steeper. Traders are looking to U.S. auctions and FOMC minutes for the Jan meeting for direction, as markets remain volatile amid the gradual withdrawal of central bank support. European finance ministers gathered for Eurogroup and Ecofin meetings but with Ireland withdrawing of central bank head Lane for Constancio’s position as vice president the way is free for Spanish economy minister Guindos to take over.

                FX Update: The dollar continued to hold firm, extending the same theme for a second day. This came with 2-year U.S. Treasury yields rising to a near 10-year high in Asia today, and with stock market sentiment having soured somewhat following a week-long rebound. The USD index (DXY) posted a four-session high of 89.44, extending the rebound from Friday’s 37-monnth low to 1.4%. EURUSD remained heavy after logging four-session low at 1.2369 yesterday. USDJPY lifted for a third straight session, this time logging a four-session high of 106.95, extending the rebound from the 15-month low seen last Thursday at 105.54. EURJPY and other yen crosses are also firmer, though by a lesser magnitude than USDJPY with a broader bid in the dollar also been at play. The yen’s past inverse correlation with stock market direction has remained absent, with equity markets in Asia turning lower today, following the souring in sentiment that was seen during the PM session on European bourses yesterday. The dollar also traded firmer versus the likes of the baht, Singapore dollar and rand, along with most other newly developed and developing-world currencies. One exception was the Australian dollar ,which outperformed today, posting a 0.4% gain versus the yen, and a 0.2% rise against the U.S. buck.

                Charts of the Day


                Main Macro Events Today
                • German ZEW Economic Sentiment – a dip in the German ZEW Investor Sentiment expected to 16.2 from 20.4 in January.
                • EU Consumer Confidence – is expected to correct to 1.0 from 1.3 in January.
                • NZ GDT Price Index
                Support and Resistance levels


                Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                Andria Pichidi
                Market Analyst
                HotForex



                Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                Comment


                • Date : 21st February 2018.

                  MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st February 2018.




                  FX News Today

                  European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -1.1 bp at 0.717%, following on from broad corrections in Asian long yields overnight, while the 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.2 bp at 2.891%. The 2-year Schatz yield is down -0.6 bp at -0.522%, leaving the curve flatter from the long end, but amid the temporary set backs, the longer uptrend in long yields continues. European stock futures meanwhile are heading south, while U.S. futures are moving higher, after a largely positive session in Asia overnight, where the Hang Seng outperformed.Japanese equity markets fluctuated between gains and losses after Wall Street closed in the red and the Topix closed with a loss of -0.05%, while the Nikkei managed a gain of 0.21% as a weaker yen bolstered exporters. European data releases today include Eurozone preliminary PMI readings for February as well as U.K. labour market data and public finance numbers.

                  FX Update: The dollar has remained buoyant, led by gains in USDJPY, which lifted for a fourth straight session in logging a four-session high of 107.90, extending the rebound from the 15-month low seen last Thursday at 105.54. EURJPY and other yen crosses are also firmer, though by a lesser magnitude than USDJPY, as a broader bid in the dollar has also been at play. EURUSD posted a four-session low at 1.2317. Data out of Asia today included Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI for February, which ebbed to a 54.0 headline reading form 54.8 in January, and mixed figures out of Australia. Chinese markets remained closed for the Lunar New Year. Japan’s vice minister of finance for international affairs (the power position regarding forex intervention decisions), Asakawa, said that “I cannot help but assess the [yen] movements as one-sided,” and noted that surging U.S. Treasury yields is the “beginning of a sea change.”

                  Charts of the Day


                  Main Macro Events Today
                  • Eurozone February’s PMIs – The February Eurozone manufacturing PMI, is seen falling to 59.3 from 59.6, while the services reading slips to 57.6 from 58.0. Those should leave the composite at 58.5, down from January’s 58.8.
                  • UK Labour Market data – isWe expect the CBI surveys to show a modest abatement in the headline total orders reading for industrial trends, to 11 (median same) from 14, and a slightly increased in the headline realized sales figure for the distributive sales survey, to 14 (median same) from 12. We expect unemployment to remain at 4.3% (median same), in addition to an unchanged average income reading of 2.5% y/y for the with-bonus figure (which would still lag inflation, which stands at 3.0%).
                  • US Markit PMI – The February manufacturing PMI, is seen falling to 55.4 from 55.5, while the services reading rises to 54.0 from 53.3. Those should leave the composite at 54.4, up from January’s 53.8.
                  • FOMC Minutes
                  Support and Resistance levels



                  Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                  Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                  Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                  Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                  Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                  Andria Pichidi
                  Market Analyst
                  HotForex



                  Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                  Comment





                  • GBPUSD is moving in bearish bias for today. As a trading strategy based on forex technical analysis today you can again find the position of sell in the reference area at the range 1.39491 with potential targets up to the range 1.39076. Be careful if the 1.39736 resistance breaks as it will turn the intraday bias to bullish and potentially will lift the sterling up to the range 1.40143.

                    Comment


                    • Date : 22nd February 2018.

                      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd February 2018.




                      FX News Today

                      European Fixed Income Outlook: Long yields moved higher across Asia, after yesterday’s correction, thus putting fresh pressure on stock markets. The 10-year JGB yield is up 0.1 bp at 0.046%, other markets under-performed, but the 10-year Treasury yield is down -1.1 bp at 2.939%. Investors fretted over the Fed’s upbeat assessment of the economy as the FOMC minutes saw risks roughly balanced, but mentioned increased upside risks to the near term. U.S. futures are heading south, after a mixed session in Asia. Mainland China bourses rallied in catch up trade and the CSI 300 is up 1.99%, while Nikkei and Hang Seng corrected markedly and the ASX closed with a modest gain of 0.12%. The Topix meanwhile lost -0.88%, the Nikkei -1.07% and the Hang Seng also nearly 1%. The yen strengthened against the dollar and oil prices slipped back with the front end WTI future trading at USD 61.07 per barrel.

                      FX Update: FOMC minutes showed a majority saw stronger growth in the economy and agreed a gradual rate hike approach was still appropriate. Indeed, a number of policymakers raised their growth forecasts since the December meeting and saw upside risks to growth. However, officials noted “few signs of a broad-based pickup in wage growth.” And “almost all” do expect inflation to reach to the 2% goal. Several members did caution about financial market imbalances. The report supports expectations for a 25 bp tightening in March, but of course doesn’t settle the issue of 2 or 4 rate hikes this year, which is dependent on the data reflecting the economy and inflation. Fed funds futures are little changed after the FOMC minutes, but are paring small losses earlier, in tandem with the slide in nominal yields. The minutes didn’t really tell us anything new. But the futures were primed for a slightly more hawkish tone.

                      Charts of the Day


                      Main Macro Events Today
                      • German IFO – expected to correct to 117.0 from 117.6 in January, with the risk to the downside after the sharper than expected corrections in PMI readings.
                      • UK GDP Data – unrevised GDP data for Q4 last year, anticipated at 0.5% q/q and 1.5% y/y.
                      • ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts – will be scrutinised for indications of how far the ECB’s discussions about the expected change in guidance have progressed. It is widely anticipated that a growing number of council members will be arguing for a change in language as the ECB heads toward the March meeting, which will also include updated staff projections.
                      • Canadian Retail Sales – Retail sales are expected to dip 0.3% m/m in December on the heels of the tepid 0.2% gain in November.
                      • US Unemployment Claims and Oil Inventories – U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to hold at 230k in the BLS survey week, versus the week-ended February 10. Continuing claims are expected to fall 12k to 1,930k
                      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                      Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                      Andria Pichidi
                      Market Analyst
                      HotForex



                      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                      Comment


                      • Date : 27th February 2018.

                        MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th February 2018.




                        FX News Today

                        European Fixed Income Outlook: Yields dipped in Asia. 10-year rates are down -1.0 bp in South Korea after the central bank left policy on hold. 10-year JGBs are down -0.5 bp at 0.032%, 10-year Treasury yields fell back -0.4 bp to 2.859%, after initially trying to move higher. Eurozone peripheral markets are outperforming and European stock futures are higher, after a mixed session in Asia, where markets in Hong Kong and mainland China sold off, while Topix and Nikkei closed with solid gains. U.S. futures are heading south, however, and the stock rally that was fuelled by hopes that central banks will slow the withdrawal of support, is starting to stutter ahead of Powell’s testimony that is hoped to give a clearer guidance on the outlook. Draghi continued to sit on the fence yesterday and we expect Powell’s comments to be also rather balanced. Today’s local calendar focuses on German inflation numbers and Eurozone ESI economic confidence.

                        FX Update: The dollar majors have posted narrow ranges so far today as many market participants sit on their hands into the Congressional testimony of the new Fed chairman, Powell. USDJPY has held a narrow range, logging a high of 107.10 before settling in the upper 106.00s, holding comfortably within yesterday’s range. EURUSD lifted to an intraday peak of 1.2342 before settling around 1.2330, leaving yesterday’s high at 1.2355 unchallenged. Regarding Powell, most Fed watchers, including ourselves, expect he will signal a gradualist approach to tightening, maintaining continuity in approach from his predecessor, Yellen. This expectation was cited in equity market summaries yesterday as justifying the strong close on Wall Street, though U.S. equity index futures have come off the boil in overnight trading, and stocks have been mixed in Asia, where Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed with a 1% gain but Chinese and some other markets have posted losses. The New Zealand dollar came under pressure after NZ trade data showed an unexpected deficit in January of NZ$ 566 mln. NZDUSD logged a two-session low of 0.7273.

                        Charts of the Day

                        Main Macro Events Today
                        • Eurozone ESI – rounds up the February confidence numbers and a dip to 114.3 is expected from 114.7 after preliminary consumer confidence already dipped sharply. Unlike other confidence readings the ESI already dipped in January, but overall readings remain at high levels and consistent with ongoing robust growth with PMI readings suggesting that job creation remains strong, which backs expectations for gradually rising wages going forward.
                        • US CB Consumer Confidence- The Consumer confidence should remain buoyant at 126.7 in February and the Richmond Fed index is sent to rise to 16.0 in February from 14.
                        • US Core Durable Goods – seen sinking 2.5% in January from 2.8%, while advanced indicators goods trade gap may widened to -$73.4 bln in January from -$72.3 bln. Also on tap is the FHFA home price index, seen rising 0.4% to 257.0, while Case-Shiller home prices may be flat in December.
                        • Fed Chair Powell Testifies
                        Support and Resistance Levels





                        Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                        Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                        Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                        Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                        Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                        Andria Pichidi
                        Market Analyst
                        HotForex



                        Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                        Comment


                        • Date : 28th February 2018.

                          MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th February 2018.




                          FX News Today

                          European Fixed Income Outlook: : Stock markets remained under pressure during the Asian session, as yields moved higher in the wake of Powell’s testimony yesterday and weaker than expected data out of China and Japan added to pressure. The 10-year Treasury yield is down from earlier highs, but remains up 0.7 bp on the day and sightly above the 2.9% mark. 10-year JGB yields are up 0.9 bp at 0.042%. Stock markets meanwhile got stung by the reminder that central banks are still on course to take out stimulus and Powell’s reference to the risk of overheating and the Nikkei closed with a loss of 1.44%, the Topix was down -1.23% at the close. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are down -1.46% and -0.62% respectively, as China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 from 51.3 and Japan industrial production dropped -6.6% m/m. U.S. stock futures are also heading south as are UK100 futures and the front end WTI future is down on the day at USD 62.72 per barrel. The very busy data calendar today include German jobless numbers as well as Eurozone inflation numbers, the Swiss KOF and a German 10-year auction.

                          German GfK consumer confidence dipped to 10.8 with March numbers from 11.0 in February. An unexpected correction after the surprisingly strong February numbers. The full details for February, show economic expectations falling back in tandem with income expectations and the willingness to buy, although the willingness to save turned even more negative. Overall readings remains at very high levels, like business confidence surveys, but suggest some levelling off which will back the arguments of the ECB doves for caution with regard to any changes in guidance.

                          Charts of the Day

                          Main Macro Events Today
                          • German Labour Data – Confidence readings may have fallen back more than expected in February, but preliminary PMI reports still suggested that companies remain sufficiently optimistic about the recovery to take on more staff and German jobless numbers expected to dip -15K in February, leaving the jobless rate unchanged at just 5.4%.
                          • Eurozone Inflation – The Eurozone HICP for February was expected to show a headline rate of 1.2% y/y, but has a bias to the downside after yesterday’s preliminary readings from Spain and Germany. The former may have come in higher than expected, but the latter fell back more than anticipated. Still, the German numbers also suggested that much of the dip was due to base effects from energy and food prices, so the real focus will be on core inflation, rather than the headline rate and even German numbers suggest that could remain steady.
                          • US Prelim GDP – a second release of Q4 GDP likely trimmed to 2.5% from 2.6%.
                          Support and Resistance Levels


                          Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                          Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                          Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                          Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                          Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                          Andria Pichidi
                          Market Analyst
                          HotForex



                          Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                          Comment


                          • Date : 1st March 2018.

                            MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st March 2018.




                            FX News Today

                            European Fixed Income Outlook: :Asian bond yields mostly dropped, with the 10-year JGB down -0.8 bp at 0.035%, after dovish BoJ comments. The 10-year Treasury yield has stabilised, after yesterday’s slide and is trading at 2.86%. The dip in yields yesterday did nothing to boost stock market confidence and Wall Street closed with broad losses. The negative sentiment spilled over into Asian markets and Nikkei and Topix closed with losses of 1.56% and 1.59% respectively, and stocks were also under pressure in Hong Kong and Australia with materials and health care stocks leading the way. Mainland China bourses outperformed after a better than expected Caixin manufacturing PMI and the CSI 300 is up 0.42%. Markets remain nervous ahead of Powell’s hearing, after the Fed Chairman’s comments hit markets earlier in the week. Reports that Trump plans a 25% tariff on steel imports is adding to pressure. U.S. futures are mostly down, while oil prices are marginally higher on the day with the front end WTI future trading at USD 61.70 per barrel. Today’s calendar focuses on manufacturing PMI readings for the Eurozone, the U.K. and Switzerland. the U.K. also has lending data, the Eurozone jobless numbers and there are bond auctions in Spain and France.

                            FX Update: The dollar has remained underpinned versus most currencies, bolstering to the USD index (DXY) to a five-week high of 90.74 and pushing EURUSD to a six-week low of 1.2183. AUDUSD has registered the biggest move in trade so far on the calendar day out of the currencies we track, showing a 0.4% decline, with the Australian dollar underperforming amid reports that Trump is set to announce a 25% tariff on U.S. steel imports. Australian is the world’s biggest export of iron ore, which is the base metal of steel. AUDUSD logged a two-month low at 0.7717, and AUDJPY, a cross that many consider is a forex market barometer of global investor risk appetite, has forayed into nine-month low terrain. USDJPY, while having recouped to the upper 106.0s, edged out a two-day low of 106.53 earlier in Tokyo trade, and EURJPY posted its lowest level since last mid September, at 129.85. The yen’s outperformance has come amid a backdrop of falling equity markets amid a backdrop of Fed tightening expectations and concerns about Trump starting trade wars.

                            Charts of the Day

                            Main Macro Events Today
                            • UK & Eurozone Manufacturing PMI – The February Eurozone Markit manufacturing PMI, is seen unchanged at at 58.5.
                            • US Core PCE and Jobless claims – Initial jobless claims for the February 17 week will be scrutinized at it coincides with the BLS survey week. It is expected to released at 226K from 222K last week. Personal income is expected to grow 0.2% in January, while consumption should rise 0.2% as well.
                            • Fed Chair Powell Testifies
                            • US ISM Manufacturing PMI – ISM is expected to drop to 58.7 in February from 59.1.

                            Support and Resistance Levels


                            Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                            Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                            Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                            Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                            Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                            Andria Pichidi
                            Market Analyst
                            HotForex



                            Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.



                            Comment


                            • Date : 2nd March 2018.

                              MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd March 2018.




                              FX News Today

                              European Fixed Income Outlook: Long yields are mixed in Asia. 10-year JGBs trailed Treasuries and sold off, with the yield up 0.8 bp at 0.055%, while the 10-year Treasury yields jumped 2 bp to 2.83%. Yields headed south in Australia and New Zealand. The global stock market sell off meanwhile continued in Asia overnight, Nikkei and Topix lost 2.5% and 1.8% respectively, undermined by U.S. President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs in imported steel and aluminium, which together with a stronger yen weighed on exporters. The rise in long yields moved amid a drop in the jobless rate and a rise in Tokyo inflation added to pressure. U.S. futures are starting to stabilise, however, oil prices remain under pressure, with the front end Nymex future trading at USD 60.92 per barrel. In Europe,the 10-year Bund yield is down -2.1 bp at 0.616% as of 7:25GMT, extending opening losses after weaker than expected German retail sales and a dip in import price inflation at the start of the session. European stock futures are deeply in the red, after a sell off in Asia overnight. The local calendar still has the U.K. CIPS construction PMI as well as Eurozone producer price inflation.

                              Fed Chairman Powell had been largely bullish, Fed’s Dudley later seemed at ease with 4 hikes and that didn’t help along with the tariff/trade concerns. Powell’s testimony included a lot of discussion was on the labor market, wages, and inflation. He did note at Tuesday’s hearing that there was still some slack in the system, but was the markets instead focused on his comments about keeping a gradual tightening posture in place to prevent the economy from “overheating,” as well as on his optimism on growth following tax legislation. He stressed several times that wage inflation isn’t at a point of acceleration and isn’t expected to push up inflation. He does expect wages and prices to be moving up, but he didn’t suggest inflation is on the brink or a breakout. The PCE deflator data supports that conclusion. It’s still the case the Fed will increase the funds rate another 25 bps at the end of the month.

                              Charts of the Day



                              Main Macro Events Today

                              * UK Prime Minister May Speech

                              * UK Construction PMI – the construction PMI expected to come in at 50.5 from 50.2, which would affirm a sector barely limping along.

                              * BOE Gov Carney Speaks in London, for the evolution of money and the emergence of Crypto-currencies.

                              * Canadian GDP – December GDP is seen flat (0.0%) after the 0.4% jump in November. The separate GDP report is projected to reveal a 2.0% real growth pace (q/q, saar) following the 1.7% growth rate in Q3.

                              * US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment – Final Michigan sentiment for February may tick up to 99.5 from 99.9 prelim.

                              Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                              Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                              Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                              Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                              Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                              Andria Pichidi
                              Market Analyst
                              HotForex


                              Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                              Comment


                              • Date : 5th March 2018.

                                MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th March 2018.




                                Main Macro Events This Week

                                The financial markets are always subject to risks, be they interest rate, credit, currency, monetary, or geopolitical — but it’s the sensitivity to the uncertainties that waxes and wanes. Last year was a virtual one-way trip higher for global equities as many possible hazards were ignored amid bullish momentum and surging optimism. But that tone has given way to a much more nervous and volatile climate, especially as key central banks are discussing, or are in the process of, exiting QE, while political headwinds abound.

                                The markets will open Monday with ongoing focus on President Trump’s decision to impose import tariffs on steel (25%) and aluminium (10%), with details and implementation expected this week.The tariff news also took central banks off the front page for a time. But worries over the changing dynamic to less stimulative postures will again be at the forefront with policy meetings this week from the BoJ and ECB, and the key U.S. nonfarm payroll report on tap, which will be a guide for the March 20, 21 FOMC.

                                United States: U.S. markets have a lot on their plate this week. Much of the early focus will be on any details of the import tariffs President Trump plans to impose. Though the direct effects on the U.S. would be limited, the bigger consequence would be from global repercussions and any retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, data and Fedspeak will be scrutinized this week ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting, as they could factor into outlooks on the Fed’s economic projections to be released then, along with the dot plot for 2018 and 2019, after Chairman Powell’s upbeat assessment of the economy and his confidence in rising inflation in his Monetary Policy Report boosted expectations for a shift from 3 to 4 tightenings this year. The February employment report (Friday)tops the data calendar this week. Remember it was the acceleration in average hourly earnings to a 2.9% y/y in the January, the strongest since 2009, that was a catalyst for much of the bond selloff which pushed the 10-year yield over the 2.90% mark, a four year high. That statistic, along with the payroll gain, will be the scrutinized. Other important data this week includes the ISM nonmanufacturing report, along with January trade and revised Q4 productivity. The January trade deficit (Wednesday) should post its 5th consecutive month of widening, to -$55.3 bln From December’s -$53.1 bln, amid declines in imports and exports. Q4 Productivity in Q4 (Wednesday)should be unrevised at -0.1% (, after firming to 2.7% from Q2’s 1.5% in the Advance numbers. Other reports on the week include the February ADP private payroll survey, the precursor to the BLS jobs report, along with January factory orders and wholesale trade.

                                Canada:It promises to be a busy week in Canada for both data and events. The main event is the BoC’s rate announcement (Wednesday), which is expected to result in no change to the current 1.25% rate setting. Uncertainties remain elevated, especially after the proposed steel and aluminum tariffs from President Trump raised the specter of a trade war while lending a bit of pessimism to the ongoing NAFTA talks. The economic data slate is highlighted by employment (Friday), projected to show a 25.0k gain in February after the 88.0k tumble in January. The January trade deficit (Wednesday) is seen narrowing to -C$3.0 bln from -C$3.2 bln in December. Productivity (Wednesday) is expected to edge 0.1% higher in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 0.6% drop in Q3. Housing starts (Thursday) are seen edging lower to a 215.0k pace in February from 216.2k in January. Building permits (Thursday) are anticipated to slip 1.0% in January after the 4.8% gain in values during December.

                                Europe: The focus this week is on the ECB meeting on Thursday and given the weak round of confidence and inflation data coupled with ongoing market volatility, only minor tweaks to the guidance are expected, with the cautious camp still in the majority and even previously hawkish members like Coeure apparently concerned by recent market moves. The hawks meanwhile can take solace in the fact that even after the recent dip in yields, they are still considerably higher than back in December. The current QE schedule is set to run until the end of September and there is no need for the central bank to commit to an end date for QE before June at the earliest, more likely July, although if the hawks become too insistent Draghi could take out the reference to the possibility of a renewed increase in size – i.e. monthly purchase volumes, something that at this juncture, nobody expects anyway.

                                With February confidence data as well as preliminary inflation out of the way the calendar calms down this week. The Eurozone has the 3rd releases of Q4 GDP, which is expected to confirm the quarterly growth rate at 0.6% q/q , leaving the annual rate at 2.7% y/y and the focus on the full breakdown, which will be published for the first time. German manufacturing orders are likely to attract more attention and should support the doves at the ECB, as we are looking for a correction of -1.5 m/m in January , after the surprising December jump of 3.8% m/m. German industrial production for January, meanwhile, is seen rising 0.2% m/m, after a dip of -0.6% m/m in December.The calendar also has Eurozone retail sales as well as German trade data, and French industrial production numbers for January. Supply comes from Germany, which auctions 5-year Bobls on Wednesday.

                                UK: The calendar this week brings the February Markit services PMI (Monday), the February BRC retail sales report (Tuesday), and January industrial production and trade figures (Friday). The pound under-performed last week, losing an average 1.3% versus dollar, euro and yen. Brexit related news has been think in the news the British government hurries to come up with a clear negotiating position ahead of the March 22 EU leader’s summit. Prime Minister May gave a keynote speech last Friday, which is one of a series of speeches by herself and senior cabinet members laying out what the government hopes to achieve with the EU in a future trade agreement, including ideas on how to accommodate deep-seated Irish concerns about the post-Brexit border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. It remains uncertain, if not unlikely, that the EU will agree to May’s idea for a new customs partnership and the bespoke sector-by-sector deals that she is looking for. EU officials have repeatedly and consistently stated that there can be no “cherry picking,” so there remain a lot of known unknowns as to how Brexit will unfold. May’s speech was notable for the fact that she finally admitted that the UK will have less access to the single market, implying that a “soft” Norway or Swiss-like deal is off the cards. The pound has continued to trade at about an average discount of between about 12% and 15% versus levels seen ahead of the vote to leave the EU in 2016.

                                Japan: the markets will await the BoJ meeting (Thursday, Friday) for any fresh insights on QE after Governor Kuroda told parliament last week he could see ending stimulus in fiscal 2019. Meanwhile, the second release of Q4 GDP (Thursday) should see an upward revision to a 1.1% q/q annualized growth rate from the 0.5% pace in the Advance release. February bank loans (Thursday) are expected to accelerate slightly to a 2.5% y/y rate from 2.4%. January personal income and PCE (Friday), should see the latter down 0.5% y/y from -0.1% previously.

                                China: the National People’s Congress kicks off its two-week meeting on Monday and will be monitored closely for new developments and especially in the wake of possible U.S. tariffs. The February trade report (Thursday) should see the surplus widen to $25.0 bln from $20.3 bln. February CPI (Friday) is penciled in firming to a 2.1% y/y clip from 1.5%, with PPI seen slowing slightly to 4.0% y/y from 4.3%. There could be some distortions in all of the data from the week-long Lunar New Year holidays

                                Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia (Tuesday) is expected to hold rates steady at the current 1.50% setting. The Q4 current account (Tuesday) is seen widening to a -A$11.0 bln deficit from -A$9.1 bln in Q3. Retail sales (Tuesday)are projected to rise 0.5% in January after the 0.5% m/m drop in December. GDP (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.6% in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the matching 0.6% gain in Q3. The trade balance (Thursday) is anticipated to shift to a A$0.5 bln surplus in January from the -A$1.4 bln deficit in December. RBA Governor Lowe speaks (Wednesday) on “The Changing Nature of Investment” to the AFR Business Summit in Sydney.

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                                Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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                                Andria Pichidi
                                Market Analyst
                                HotForex

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